Premier League passing trends 2011/12
Nearly a third of all of Liverpool's successful passes have come in the final third; a sign of a frustrated team? (Image: Flickr/kong niffe)
Pass completion statistics are fast becoming a popular measure of player evaluation, no doubt aided by the fact that Barcelona have set a benchmark at the top of club football.
Like all statistics though, and perhaps even more so for passing data, more context is required, particularly when you note that Leon Britton has trumped Xavi in the pass completion stakes so far this season. However, looking at the other numbers it’s clear to see why Xavi is a Champions League and World Cup winner, and why Leon Britton is not.
I’m particularly interested in passing efficiency in the final third; an area of the pitch that you’d think requires tremendous ability to be successful. But first, I’ve attempted to find some correlations in Premier League passing data this season, courtesy of Eplindex.com.
The national job: the only way is English?
Harry Redknapp leads a line of English candidates for the national job (Image: Flickr/curiouslypersistent)
By early July, after the tears from another limp summer tournament failure are wiped away, the England national team will welcome in a ‘new era’. Gone will be the bumbling Capello, a man who could neither motivate nor associate with his players, and in comes the lionhearted Englishman, who values full-bloodedness over false nines.
As far as predicting public and media perception, this imagery is hardly far-fetched. It does appear that Harry Redknapp will be appointed as England manager, or at the very least a ‘home-grown’ coach in the shape of Roy Hodgson or Alan Pardew.
Expectations table: managers under pressure?
Wigan are eight points off predicted - should Martinez be under more pressure? (Image: Flickr/illarterate)
A break from league action after a busy period of games presents a good time to assess how the twenty Premier League clubs are progressing this season.
At the start of the season, the Euro Club Index predicted what the league table would look like before the FA Cup weekend break. The methodology is explained here. The table takes into account the postponement of Tottenham v Everton in August.
The predictable Premier League
Top Premier League teams, including champions Man United, aren't prone to upsets (Image: Flickr/socialBedia)
A couple of weeks ago I looked down the Premier League table and thought: there’s nothing particularly interesting about this season. The teams you’d expect to be near the top occupied the top six spaces, the teams with weak squads were struggling near the bottom, and the rest filled the space in between. This remains true as I write.
On the weekend of 17th-18th December no team beat a club higher-placed in the league table. An isolated case, maybe, but hardly an advert for the Premier League.
How much is a clean sheet worth?
Bayern Munich's Manuel Neuer leads the way for Bundesliga clean sheets this season (Image: Flickr/sdhansay)
In September last year Soccer By The Numbers tested a suggestion from Mike Forde, Chelsea’s Performance Director, that there is a “stronger correlation between clean sheets and where you finish than goals scored and where you finish.”
The post found a clean sheet to be worth roughly the same as three goals; that is if you fail to concede you can expect the same amount of points on average as if you score three goals in a match. It’s a startling statistic, giving credence to the idea that good teams are built ‘from the back’.
Quantifying Lucas’ absence
Can we predict how Liverpool will perform without Lucas? (Image: Flickr/Ben Sutherland)
The widespread disappointment that met the news of Lucas’ injury is a reflection on the Brazilian’s progress; his tale of zero to hero is now well-repeated in mainstream discussion.
Statistics have justified his continued role in the team. He’s been the league’s most prolific tackler both this and last season, and also produced a fine ball-winning display in his most recent league match.
His sudden absence has sparked speculation as to how Liverpool will cope. It’s entirely fair to suggest areas where Liverpool may be weakened, but what isn’t fair is to release misleading information.
Expectations table: predicting final positions
Man City could be 16 points better off in May than originally predicted (Image: Flickr/umbrofootball)
Recently I’ve been trying to assess Premier League clubs’ results at early stages in the season, bearing in mind some teams face relatively easy fixtures, and others less so.
The method I used during the October and November international breaks proved popular, despite inherent flaws. Infostrada Sports’ Euro Club Index accounts for these flaws by generating league odds, which can be compared at different stages of the season.
Expectations table: Arsenal recover lost ground
Arsenal have improved on last season's results despite a troubled start (Image: Flickr/Crystian Cruz)
Last month, my expectations-adjusted league table attracted a lot of good feedback, and so November’s international break provides a good window to revisit the standings.
The table directly compared this season’s results to last season’s corresponding games, thus giving a fair idea of a team’s progress or decline. Although not perfect, it’s a better way of evaluating results than ‘this time last season’ comparisons, which overlooks difficult or easy fixture lists.
Do early kick offs produce fewer goals?
Arsenal kick off early against Spurs (Image: wonker/Flickr)
There’s a belief that early Premier League kick offs tend to be cagey affairs, often decided by the odd goal.
The reasoning is two-fold: early matches tend to be high-profile encounters between rivals or closely-matched teams, and perhaps players are also aware of the public focus on such televised games.
Utilising possession in the Premier League
Stoke proved to be one of the most efficient teams with and without the ball last season (Image: Flickr, Ronnie Macdonald)
A number of questions have been raised recently over the usefulness of possession statistics in football. Liverpool’s Director of Football Damien Comolli claims that “there is less of a correlation between possession and success than we supposed… it tends to be overrated by most clubs.”
Both Soccer Statistically and Chimu Solutions (here and here) have looked at data from the MLS, and found that teams are actually more successful in matches where they see less than 50% of the ball, a counter-intuitive phenomenon.
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